The NFL season is almost here and that means that many sports fans are entering the best Underdog Fantasy QB Pick ‘Em contests. Guest contributor Butt Fumble Sports has looked over all of the different possible entries and identified five quarterbacks around the league who he thinks are worth including on your entry into the fantasy contest.
If you want to try one of the Underdog Fantasy NFL contests for yourself, click here to sign-up and get a 100% match on your first deposit up to $100. With that bonus, you can give yourself the opportunity to enter more contests on the fantasy sports platform. The Pick ‘Em contests are just one of many exciting formats, including season-long Underdog Fantasy football draft leagues.
Table of Contents
- Aaron Rodgers 28.5 Passing Touchdowns: Higher or Lower?
- Justin Herbert 10.5 Interceptions: Higher or Lower?
- Justin Fields 2.5 100+ Rush Yard Games: Higher or Lower?
- Lamar Jackson 24 Passing Touchdowns: Higher or Lower?
- Matthew Stafford 11.5 Passing Interceptions: Higher or Lower?
Aaron Rodgers 28.5 Passing Touchdowns: Higher or Lower?
Aaron Rodgers is the king of New York and he hasn’t even thrown a pass in a regular season game for the Jets yet. After being acquired this past offseason, Rodgers is expected to turn the Jets into legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
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All the hype, all the hope, all the expectations – how could Mr. Rodgers possibly live up to such lofty expectations?
Last year, Rodgers had 26 passing touchdowns in 17 games played. He also had familiarity with his receivers, he had comfort with his o-live members, and he wasn’t learning a new system.
While Rodgers isn’t likely going to go through massive growing pains in New York, thinking he’s going to improve on his touchdown total from last year feels a little too optimistic to us. Why? The defenses he’s playing!
The Jets play the Bills, Dolphins, and Patriots six times – all good defenses – and also play the Cowboys, Broncos, and Eagles. They have a very tough schedule!
Even if Rodgers has a couple of three or four passing TD games, it feels like 29 total passing touchdowns is a stretch. We will go lower for Mr. Rodgers, even while we are riding high on the Jets’ potential.
Aaron Rodgers 28.5 Passing TDs: Lower
Justin Herbert 10.5 Interceptions: Higher or Lower?
Justin Herbert has had three seasons in the NFL. In 2020, he had 10 INTs, In 2021, he had 15. In 2022, he had 10. So, double-digit picks are close to a given at this point…but can Herbert reach 11 this upcoming season?
YES!
The Chargers are a pass-heavy offense and that will continue in 2023. They added ANOTHER wide receiver, they didn’t pay Austin Ekeler, and Justin Herbert is in enough commercials to remind people of Baker Mayfield’s time on TV a few years ago. The passing game is a priority for the Chargers.
Herbert will be chucking all season long, and not all of those chucks will make it to Charger receivers. Some INTs are going to happen – especially against opponents like the Dolphins, Cowboys, Jets, Ravens, Patriots, and Bills…and that excludes the Broncos and Chiefs who could take a few passes from Herbert in the AFC West division meetings.
Even if Herbert puts up MVP numbers in passing yards and touchdowns, the interceptions will be plentiful. More than 10.5? We will take that every day (and twice on Sunday)!
Justin Herbert 10.5 Interceptions: Higher
Justin Fields 2.5 100+ Rush Yard Games: Higher or Lower?
Justin Fields had three games in 2022 with more than 100 rushing yards. He also had three other games with at least 80 rushing yards.
Sure, defenses in 2023 are going to be more aware of Fields’ running ability and will design game plans to counter his mobility. And yet, it still won’t matter.
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Fields is a special runner and given how Chicago’s offense operates, he will continue to have opportunities to make out-of-the-pocket plays for long runs. Even better, the Bears added talent to the offensive and wide receiver position so the protection around Fields will be better and the field will be more open for the Bears QB.
Want even more of a reason to believe in Justin Fields reaching three 100+ rushing games? The Bears schedule is loaded is poor defensive opponents…the Falcons, Cardinals, Vikings, Panthers, Saints, Raiders, and Buccaneers all present opportunities for 100+ rushing yards.
We like Fields to have a big year through the air, but there is nothing we like more than Justin Fields having three 100+ rush yard games.
Justin Fields 2.5 100+ Rush Yard Games: Higher
Lamar Jackson 24 Passing Touchdowns: Higher or Lower?
In 2019 and 2020, Lamar Jackson had at least 26 passing touchdowns. In 2021 and 2022, Jackson failed to reach 18 passing touchdowns.
Given the whipsaw swing from success to failure for Lamar Jackson over the past two seasons, at least passing the ball, may have some jumping to take the lower on 24 passing touchdowns on this Pick ‘Em entry for the Ravens quarterback.
We are not joining that crowd!
This offseason, the Ravens upgraded their offense like no other time in the Lamar Jackson era. New offensive coordinator Todd Monken brings a completely different style to Baltimore – big plays will be a big part of the focus instead of solely relying on running the ball, like under former OC Greg Roman.
Not only is the system more passing touchdown friendly for Lamar Jackson, but his new weapons at wide receiver will help him improve his stats as well. Odell Beckham Jr. might not be as good as he once was, but we will certainly be a strong red zone target for Jackson.
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And while OBJ gets the camera time, Zay Flowers is set to have a monster rookie season for the Ravens. Whether between the 20s or in the red zone, Flowers will be a consistent target for Lamar, and his post-catch speed will be trouble for defenses.
Oh, and there is still one of the best red zone targets on this offense in the tight end Mark Andrews.
So, the system, the weapons, and – most importantly – Jackson’s health entering the season has us optimistic about his passing touchdown potential. Look for the higher than 24 total passing TDs on this best Underdog Fantasy QB Pick ‘Em.
Lamar Jackson 24 Passing TDs: Higher
Matthew Stafford 11.5 Passing Interceptions: Higher or Lower?
In 11 games in 2022, Matthew Stafford had eight interceptions.
The Rams didn’t get better this season on offense – they didn’t add new wide receivers – and Stafford’s health and sustainability are questions entering the regular season.
So, if you think Matthew Stafford doesn’t play 16 or 17 games this year – you might also think that going with lower than 11.5 interceptions is a good fantasy contest entry. However, we are are taking the other side of this one.
When Stafford is at QB for LA, you can’t always count on big plays or touchdowns, but interceptions happen…and they can happen in bunches!
Stafford’s health and the Rams’ inability to protect their aging QB could negatively impact the total interceptions this season, but we think that even if Stafford only plays 15 games, we will still have at least 12 or 13 interceptions.
Plus, the Rams play four games against two strong secondaries in the 49ers and Seahawks, one would expect the Rams to be trailing in games and thus need to throw more, and Stafford has always been willing to chuck up a risky pass, “gunslinger” style.
Yes, injuries could be the downfall of this play, but we are going to remain hopeful for Stafford’s health and doubtful about his ability to avoid interceptions.
Matthew Stafford 11.5 Interceptions: Higher