After a weekend away from making MLB picks, we are relaxed, a little tan, and dialed in on the best MLB bets for August 14th.
Who do we like to start the week? Let’s dive in on our analysis…
Houston Astros (-135) at Miami Marlins (+115) – 7:40 PM EST
Both the Astros and Marlins enter this interleague series needing wins to keep pace in the playoff chase. For Houston, the surprise isn’t their playoff hopes, but instead the fact they are in 2nd in the AL West behind the Rangers. The Marlins being in contention for a Wild Card spot – now that’s a surprise.
So, with two good teams facing off, we hope to see some good baseball, and the starters for Monday’s game might look like a pitchers’ duel waiting to happen…at least when you don’t dive into the numbers.
Framber Valdez pitched a no-hitter to start the month of August but had given up five, four, and six runs in his three starts prior to the no-hitter. And then, he allowed six runs in his most recent start.
Valdez’s no-hitter is the outlier, while the runs allowed are more typical. Another note on Valdez, his ERA, HR allowed, and OBA are all higher when he’s on the road (like he will be on Monday).
The opposite can be said about Braxton Garrett. At home in Miami, Garrett has a higher ERA, HR allowed, and OBA.
Given the offenses and the two pitchers’ home-road split disparities, the OVER is where we have our focus and our dollars on this one.
MLB Best Bet: Astros-Marlins OVER 7.5 (-120)
Oakland Athletics (+190) at St. Louis Cardinals (-220) – 7:45 PM EST
In interleague games, the Oakland Athletics are 13-27 (worst in MLB). As a road underdog, the A’s are 15-43 (2nd worst in MLB). And, Oakland is 26-75 on no days rest (worst in MLB).
Oakland has been bad this year – and while the Cardinals are having a down year (especially for the standard set in St. Louis), the struggles of the Cardinals don’t compare to the 2023 Athletics.
The A’s will try to fight all the trends we just listed by starting J.P. Sears – who has a 1-3 record and 5.19 ERA and .287 OBA over the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas has had back-to-back starts allowing 2 earned runs over 7-innings pitched. While both games resulted in an “L” for St. Louis, the Cards should be pleased with how Mikolas threw in those two starts.
So, if the trends point you in one direction and the starting pitching matchup points you in that same direction, don’t overthink it and follow the obvious!
MLB Best Bet: Cardinals ML (-220)
Los Angeles Angels (+155) at Texas Rangers (-185) – 8:05 PM EST
The hitters on the LA Angels roster have a combined 105 at-bats all-time against Max Scherzer. In total, over those 105 ABs, they have collected just 15 hits! That’s a .143 batting average!
Hunter Renfroe, Mike Moustakas, Randal Grichuk, Eduardo Escobar, and Brandon Drury all have batting averages below .145 against Scherzer.
No, Mad Max has never faced Shohei Ohtani before (that is a matchup worth watching), but even with Shohei hitting a HR, it’s hard to see the Angels’ offense scoring too many runs against Max Scherzer on Monday.
Plus, Scherzer has a 3-1 record, 2.73 ERA, and .193 over the last 30 days – that’s vintage Scherzer!
The history between the hitters and pitchers tells us all we need to know – we’re not messing with Texas as one of our best MLB bets for August 14th!
MLB Best Bet: Rangers ML (-185)
