When you are looking for the MLB best bet and reach this point in the Major League Baseball season, you expect weather to be a positive factor in driving offense, and particularly in positively affecting the number of home runs across MLB each day. However, on Sunday, that may not be the case as the weather and the starting pitchers may produce more under run total outcomes than one would expect – at least for July 30th.
There are a few contenders for the MLB best bet for July 30th. The only three games where home runs might be in surplus rather than deficit compared to normal are in Colorado where the Rockies host the Athletics, in Los Angeles where the Dodgers play the Reds, and in Chicago for the White Sox game against the Guardians. Those three games are the only ones across Sunday’s slate that have at least a +10% probability of home runs being hit above their average. Not typical for late July, but also a potential opportunity for sports bettors to catch a slight advantage against the sportsbooks.
Turning to a few games in which we prefer the UNDER, the obvious one will be Nationals at Mets with Trevor Williams opposing Justin Verlander, in what could be his last start in a Mets uniform with the trade deadline only a few days away. Verlander has be brilliant in July, posting a 3-1 record with a 1.69 ERA across 32 innings pitched. He’s held opposing hitters to a .153 batting average during the month, and that should continue against a Nationals team that he’s dominated.
Against Verlander, the current roster of hitters the Nats have are hitting a pathetic .071 – that’s right, 2 hits in 28 at-bats. Not only is the under 9.5 (-165) a strong play for this Nationals-Mets game, but the obvious play would be Mets on the moneyline (-275) – and even more attractive, Mets first innings moneyline (-139).
MLB Best Bet: Nationals / Mets U9.5 (-165) or Mets ML (-275)/ First Inning ML (-139)
In St. Louis, the rivalry between the Cubs and Cardinals continues – though both teams (and their fans) may be looking forward to the 2024 season more than the completion of this year.
The Cubs have been on a hot streak and that could keep them from selling players at the deadline, but the Cardinals will most likely be dealing some familiar names come the trade deadline. How does that impact a player? Might be a distraction. Is that enough of a reason to take the UNDER in this game? Of course not – but Kyle Hendricks’s 2.82 ERA on the road and Steven Matz’s 2.74 ERA in July are definitely enough of a reason.
Matz has dominated the lineup of hitters Chicago has, holding them to a combined .195 batting average (15-for-77). Hendricks has been as dominant, but he’s pitched better in day games than nights games – that’s something else to consider. The way to play this one is UNDER 10.5 runs if you can find it or 9.5 if you can’t.
MLB Best Bet: Cubs/Cardinals U10.5 or U9.5 (-125)
Another game that could see the under as the way to lean is the Mariners at the Diamondbacks. The Mariners put Luis Castillo on the mound and he’s had success lifetime against the hitters on the Diamondbacks roster. Combine, Arizona hitters are 8-for-63 against Castillo, that’s a .127 batting average – YIKES! While Castillo’s ERA on the road and his ERA in July are both above 3.30, he’s still going to keep it a low-scoring game.
On the other side, Merrill Kelly returned from the IL with a strong 6-inning performance in his last start and his ERA over the season is 3.12. If you can get the OVER/UNDER line at 9.5, jump on the under! If you find it at 8.5, it still may be worth playing. On top of the run total, the Diamondbacks +1.5 could be a strong play. The Diamondbacks are 29-24 on the run line as an underdog this season.
MLB Best Bet: Mariners / Diamondbacks U9.5 or U8.5 (-110)
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