Of all the matchups that catch our eye on today’s MLB schedule, there are three pitchers starting on Saturday who have been the definition of “fade pitcher” this season and make for a good MLB best bet. If you are a sports bettor, these are names you need to know.
After making money on yesterday’s MLB best bets, today will hopefully be more of the same.
MLB Best Bet: Jordan Lyles – Kansas City Royals
Jordan Lyles has pitched 19 games for the Kansas City Royals in 2023. Not only is he a pathetically bad 1-12 in his starts, but the Royals are a shockingly awful 1-18 in those total 19 games in which Lyles has stood on the pitcher’s mound. Could it be 1-19 for KC after Saturday? With the Twins starting Bailey Ober (6-4, 2.76 ERA, .215 OBA this season & 1.59 ERA, .190 OBA vs KC this season), it should be another fade Jordan Lyles Day (at least on the first 5-inning moneyline).
MLB Best Bet: Minnesota Twins ML (-185)
MLB Best Bet: Alek Manoah – Toronto Blue Jays
While fading Jordan Lyles might not surprise anyone, if someone in 2022 heard you were going to fade Alek Manoah, they’d think you’re nuts. That’s not the case in 2023. Manoah is a shell of his former All-Star self. This season, the former Blue Jays ace has a 2-8 record, 6.10 ERA, 13 home runs allowed, with opponents hitting .273 against him. YUCK!
If Blue Jays’ fans are trying to be optimistic, his numbers in July (1-1 record, 5.02 ERA, and .204 OBA) are an improvement over his worst-of-all-worsts June (0-1, 162.00 ERA, .875 OBA).
That doesn’t mean anyone should start believing he’s going to turn things around. Despite Manoah’s numbers, the Blue Jays are the favorite at home against the Angels – wonderful! Our lean is towards Los Angeles +1.5.
MLB Best Bet: Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (-180)
MLB Best Bet: Patrick Corbin – Washington Nationals
Patrick Corbin might not have been a “fade” pitcher when the season started, but since June, Corbin is 2-7 with a 5.13 ERA. On top of those recent struggles are his lifetime stats against the Mets roster. Collectively, Mets hitters have a .304 batting average with 6 home runs and 14 RBIs. Who is responsible for a majority of those stats? Jeff McNeil (.313 AVG, 2 RBI), Tommy Pham (.429 AVG, 3 RBI), and Pete Alonso – also known as Patrick Corbin’s Daddy (.350 AVG, 5 HR, 8 RBI).
Prop bets on Pete Alonso will be popular to the point where sportsbooks might drive up the line (for example, expect his Hits + Runs + RBIs to be set at 2.5 instead of 1.5 – and some may still think it’s a good play given the Polar Bear’s ownership of Corbin). While that 2.5 line might keep us away from the player prop bet of Alonso, we will be jumping on board with the Mets’ first five-inning moneyline and keep our Patrick Corbin fading streak going.
MLB Best Bet: Mets F5 ML (-165)
Those are our “fade” pitchers, but there is at least one hurler that have us optimistically tailing his team.
MLB Best Bet: Aaron Nola – Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are in Pittsburgh against the Pirates with Aaron Nola opposing Quinn Priester. The Phillies are the road favorite and for good reason. Nola has a 2-1 record in July with a 3.25 ERA over 27.2 innings pitched, with just one walk to 31 strikeouts and opponents hitting just .215. In his entire career, Nola has a 4-2 record against the Pirates with a 3.77 ERA and a 10 K/9.
This game might be closer than expected and thus not worth taking as a run line play, but taking the Phillies on the moneyline and, even better, Phillies’ first five-inning money line could be strong plays – even for the favored Phillies.
MLB Best Bet: Phillies ML (-175) or Phillies F5 (-180)
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