For many, Saturday represents the true start of the College Football season. For Butt Fumble Sports, it’s another beautiful Saturday to bet on baseball!
So, after going 2-for-3 on Friday (Jordan Lyles beat the Red Sox – who saw that coming…not us), we are ready to get back to work and deliver a perfect day of MLB picks.
3-for-3, here we come…
Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
If I told you that the Angels and A’s had almost the same record on the run line against AL West opponents, you may doubt it. But, the Angels are 17-24 against their division while the A’s are 15-23.
But that speaks to season-long records. Recently, the Angels are in freefall. 3-7 over their last 10 games and any hope of making the playoffs (and most likely keeping Shohei Ohtani) have evaporated over an August that saw the Angels have the 2nd worst record in MLB behind only the Colorado Rockies.
Yes, the A’s have a better record since August 1st than the Angels! That tells you all you need to know about the mess and failure of the Angels in 2023. They traded to compete and ended up worse than Oakland.
Speaking of Oakland, they send Paul Blackburn to the mound on Saturday and he has been surprisingly good of late. Over the last 30 days, Blackburn is 1-2, but has a 2.35 ERA over 30.2 innings pitched and has allowed just 2 home runs while holding hitters to a .250 average (the best he’s done in OBA this season).
Blackburn hasn’t faced LA in 2023, but Angels starter Griffin Canning has a previous meeting this year against the A’s: 5 innings, 4 hits, 3 earned runs, and a homer allowed in an Angels win. That was a 5-3 win in April…and that was a long time ago for these Angels.
Sure, we love Shohei Ohtani in this game given his excellent stats against Blackburn lifetime, but we are bigger believers in the A’s right now than the Angels.
We will play it a little safe and not take anyone on the moneyline, but instead load up on Oakland to cover the spread.
MLB Best Bet: Athletics +1.5
Tampa Bays Rays at Cleveland Guardians
Currently being five games back of the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central means the Cleveland Guardians still have a chance at the postseason in what is looking like Terry Francona’s last year in Cleveland (rumors of retirement are growing stronger according to baseball insiders).
Cleveland does have a sub-.500 record on the year, but is 34-33 straight up at home and 16-8 on the run line as a home underdog. Plus, the Guardians are 48-44 on the run line in non-division games (believe it or not, that’s 4th best in the American League).
And, if the records didn’t get you excited, Cleveland sends Logan Allen to the mound with a 3.33 ERA over the last month, and he’s held opposing hitters to a .229 batting average.
Rays SP Zack Littell has a worse ERA over the past 30 days and has allowed more home runs than Allen.
Are we saying the Guardians collect their second consecutive win over the Rays in this series? It could happen, but it’s not the bet that will have our dollars. We like Cleveland to keep this game close and to win the run line (even if they don’t win the game).
MLB Best Bet: Guardians +1.5
Seattle Mariners at New York Mets
Yesterday, the Mets earned a 2-1 win against one of baseball’s hottest teams thanks to a brilliant performance from Kodai Senga. Well, on Saturday, it’s Seattle’s turn to get a strong outing from their ace.
AL Cy Young candidate Luis Castillo will toe the rubber for the M’s, bringing with him a 3.01 ERA on the season and 0.64 ERA in his last two starts.
Mets starter David Peterson has been a Cy Young caliber pitcher at home this season: only a 2-2 record, but a 2.61 ERA and just 3 home runs allowed in 41.1 innings pitched at Citi Field.
Does the New York starter have us considering a Mets cover play? Maybe considering it, but that’s for “non-best bet” picks. When it comes to a best bet involving this game, it’s hard to pass on the Mariners moneyline.
Seattle is 32-25 after a loss, 7th best record in MLB and 4th best in the American League. The Mets after a win? 29-32.
After a loss, with Luis Castillo on the mound, and the need to continue to pile up wins to keep pace in a jam-packed AL West race gives us all the incentive necessary to pick the Mariners to win at Citi Field on Saturday.
MLB Best Bet: Mariners ML