We are hoping to replicate yesterday’s magic with our best MLB bets for September 1st. Despite the lesser MLB schedule yesterday, we still found a way to hit a home run!
4-for-4 on our MLB picks on August 31st has us excited for the possibilities of even more success on a full schedule Friday across baseball.
So, why wait to give out some more of our best MLB bets for September 1st!
Miami Marlins (-175) at Washington Nationals (+150) – 7:05 PM EST
If you look at Marlins starting pitcher Eury Perez’s home-road splits, you would prefer to bet on him and the Marlins when they are in Miami.
Perez has a worse W-L record, higher ERA, higher OBA, and has allowed more walks and fewer strikeouts despite pitching fewer innings on the road. However, there is a bright spot in all of this gloom: Perez’s history against the Nationals.
This season, Perez has made two starts against the Nats and has a 1-0 record and 0.82 ERA in those two starts. Plus, in a combined 31 at-bats against Perez, the Nationals roster has just five hits against him (a .161 batting average) and no hitter has an RBI let alone a home run.
Perez has dominated the Nationals and that has us encouraged about the Marlins chances.
Another stat that has us encouraged about betting on the Marlins to win – the Nationals have the 5th worst record against division opponents in all of MLB. With a 15-25 record against the NL East, only the Rockies have a worse division record in the Nationals League.
Yes, Washington’s pitcher Jake Irvin has been strong lately, but we like Perez and the Marlins for this one.
Best MLB bets for September 1st: Marlins ML (-175)
Philadelphia Phillies (-120) at Milwaukee Brewers (+100) – 8:10 PM EST
The Phillies had highs and lows in their last game. Bryce Harper hit his 300th home run to give Philly a late lead before blowing it and suffering the L.
Philadelphia sends Zack Wheeler to the mound to try and get the bad taste out and get the Phillies back on the winning track as the playoff race really heats up. Wheeler has been solid all year with a 3.59 ERA this season – in fact, Wheeler’s month-to-month ERA has only been above 4.00 in one month (June).
In August, Wheeler is 2-1, has a 3.00 ERA, and opponents have just a .205 batting average against him.
But, while Wheeler has been solid, Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta has been dominating. In August, Peralta was an MLB-best 5-0 and his ERA this month is just 2.10. Opponents are hitting just .111 against the Brewers righty this month, and that’s over 30 innings pitched.
Sure, Wheeler might be the name that gets the public’s attention and money, but the starting pitching stats suggest Peralta is actually the better pitcher to back.
Plus, Philadelphia is among the worst teams in baseball at covering the run line on the road. While Philly could pull off the win, we are all about Milwaukee to cover the spread today.
Best MLB bets for September 1st: Brewers +1.5 (-175)
Boston Red Sox (-185) at Kansas City Royals (+155) – 8:10 PM EST
The Red Sox have been on the fringes of the AL Wild Card race for a few weeks, but being swept at home by the Houston Astros might have been a season-ender for Boston’s playoff hopes.
Fortunately for Boston, the Red Sox are facing the right opposing pitcher on Friday to get a win and maybe keep Red Sox Nation interested in this team a little longer.
Who is the opposing pitcher Boston faces today? Kansas City Royals right-handed pitcher (and one of the best fade bets in all of sports in 2023) Jordan Lyles.
Lyles has just 3 wins this season (in 25 games pitched), his season-long ERA is 6.51 while his ERA in August was 7.89, and he’s allowed a whopping 33 home runs this year including 11 in August.
Is it too harsh to say Jordan Lyles sucks? Maybe. But the stats certainly suggest its not that far from the truth.
Unfortunately for Boston, the pitcher who had been an ace at times this season, James Paxton, has failed to sustain that success recently. In August, Paxton had his worst month when it came to ERA, walks allowed, and OBA.
But, in a previous start this season against the Royals, Paxton threw 5.1 scoreless innings with 6 strikeouts and no walks.
Are we enthusiastic about Paxton? No – but we would bet against Jordan Lyles no matter what right now…so, that’s exactly what we are going to do.
Best MLB bets for September 1st: Red Sox ML (-185)
