Finally a sub-.500 day from Butt Fumble Sports…1-for-3 on Thursday (though we did tell you we like Brandon Belt on a player prop bet and he went yard – so it wasn’t all bad). We will need to do better with our best MLB bets for September 29th.
With only a single series remaining for every team across MLB, we need to send all the baseball bettors out there into the offseason (at least when it comes to the full slate) with as many W’s as possible.
We stayed up late, studied the matchups, and found the best MLB bets for September 29th.
Let’s win the weekend and end the season on a profit!
Tampa Bay Rays (+120) at Toronto Blue Jays (-140) – 7:07 PM EST
With the Blue Jays trying to punch their postseason ticket, the Rays could make life difficult for Toronto this weekend. If TB is to play spoiler, they will need the right matchup on the mound.
Fortunately, Friday offers that kind of opportunity. Tampa Bay sends Aaron Civale to the mound where he touts a 4-2 record and 2.31 ERA on the road this season. He has struggled in the month of September (really after being traded to the Rays from the Guardians), but he hasn’t faced Toronto this season.
Whit Merrifield does have a very good track record against Civale (as does Bo Bichette), but there isn’t an obvious reason to avoid like Civale away from Tropicana Field.
On the other side, the Blue Jays start Yusei Kikuchi. He’s struggled against the Rays this season, allowing 9 runs in 15 innings including 21 hits and 3 home runs. Plus, Kikuchi has struggled in September, going 1-2 with a 4.94 ERA and .284 OBA.
Do the Blue Jays pull off the crucial win? Maybe, but even if they do, we really like the Rays to cover the run line as an underdog. Toronto is 26-44 on the run line as a home favorite. Tampa Bay is 15-8 on the run line as a road underdog. Rays, let’s play spoiler and keep it close!
Best MLB Bets for September 29th: Rays +1.5 (-180)
Philadelphia Phillies (-125) at New York Mets (+105) – 7:10 PM EST
After a late night for the Mets and a frustrating night for Bryce Harper and the Phillies, these two NL East rivals meet for one final series of the season. Philly is moving on, the Mets are destined for offseason vacations, but that doesn’t mean the fire is out of this matchup.
The Phils are putting Taijuan Walker out on the mound with a terrible September ERA, 6.17, and a bad ERA on the road, 5.26. However, he is 8-3 on the road. So the runs get scored, but the Phils usually provide enough offense to usually overcome it.
Walker has pitched well against the Mets roster, limiting them to just 5 hits in 33 at-bats without allowing a home run and only giving up 2 runs. Countering that, Mets starter Tylor Megill has a strong stat line against the Philadelphia roster – only 12 hits allowed in 55 at-bats.
Additionally, Megill has been solid at Citi Field with a 6-3 record, 3.41 ERA, and .257 OBA. Has he been lights out? No, but he’s out pitched expectations and could do so again today.
The Mets haven’t been a good run line team this season against NL East opponents, but they actually have a better run line record than the Phillies against division opponents. That’s a useful trend to keep in mind as we call out our best bet.
Mets fans, it’s been a rough year. If you need to get one more smile out of the season, take your team on the run line as the underdog at home. Would I take the Mets to win? No – not enough confidence on that to make it one of our best MLB bets for September 29th. But a nice Friday underdog feels like a very 2023 Mets thing to do.
Best MLB Bets for September 29th: Mets +1.5 (-160)
Washington Nationals (+230) at Atlanta Braves (-280) – 7:20 PM EST
Normally, a matchup this late in the season between the #1 seed and a team that’s days away from being done for the year doesn’t inspire a bet. The favorite often sits players and that leads to crazy outcomes.
The Braves aren’t behaving that way because they have such a long layoff between the regular season and their first postseason game. Because of that, they are making sure their hitters get as many swings against live pitching as possible.
No complaints from us – we love betting on Atlanta in 2023. But, we aren’t just going with MLB’s best on the moneyline…we want that run line today as well.
The Braves are 30-19 on the run line as division opponents, 2nd best in MLB. And they have plenty of experience against the Nats starter, Trevor Williams. One Atlanta hitter we really like on Friday – Ronald Acuna Jr. (he has 2 home runs and a .467 lifetime batting average against Williams).
We won’t overcomplicate this pick. With the Braves looking to maximize every swing of the regular season, we expect a home run derby Friday night and a Braves comfortable win to go with it.
Best MLB Bets for September 29th: Atlanta -1.5 (-160)
Best MLB Bets for September 29th List
- Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-180)
- New York Mets +1.5 (-160)
- Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-160)