Wednesday…we went 3-for-3 with our picks. That’s why they are called best bets because they cash tickets for you. Today we look to do the same with our best MLB bets for September 28th.
Are we en fuego? Yes – but it’s not about what you’ve done, it’s about what you’re going to do.
So let’s give out today’s best bets and hope the trends, data, and matchups lead to the same success as yesterday.
Let’s Go!
Oakland Athletics (+230) at Minnesota Twins (-280) – 1:10 PM EST
Maybe people have forgotten, but a few years ago Sonny Gray wasn’t considered a high-quality pitcher anymore. While Gray’s overall record, 8-8, doesn’t stand out, his 2.80 ERA certainly speaks to the revival of his career.
In 180 innings pitched, he’s allowed just 8 home runs – at home, he’s only allowed 4 home runs. Plus, when pitching in Minnesota, Gray has a 2.69 ERA and has limited hitters to a .228 batting average.
Sonny Gray has been good all year long, has been good at home, and in the past 30 days, he has a 1.50 ERA. Oh, and he’s facing the A’s who have just 6 hits in 26 at-bats against him including just 1 RBI.
Impressive – can the Oakland A’s counter with an adequate opponent? Luis Medina has a 3-10 record and 5.64 ERA this year and the numbers get even worse in September: 0-2 and a 6.62 ERA.
So, guess not…does that mean we are going with Minnesota on the moneyline as one of our best MLB bets for September 28th? Of course, but this game offers the opportunity to look towards the run line as well.
The Twins are 55-50 on the run line against non-division opponents, which is actually one of the best records in the American League.
Best MLB Bets for September 28th: Twins -1.5 (-130)
Arizona Diamondbacks (-155) at Chicago White Sox (+135) – 2:10 PM EST
The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 games – and that’s certainly helped by playing the Chicago White Sox, who have the 3rd fewest wins in MLB. This is the perfect set up for the second of our best MLB bets for September 28th.
Arizona is closing in on postseason life and can take the next step with a win on Thursday. They are also 23-19 on the run line in interleague games. Interesting because that’s the 8th best run line record in interleague games.
Now the D’backs starter Bryce Jarvis has only pitched 18.1 innings, but he’s 2-0 and has a 2.45 ERA and held opposing hitters to a .148 batting average. Right-handed hitters are hitting just .108 against Jarvis. Limited sample size, but still impressive statistics.
Looking at the White Sox starting pitcher, Touki Toussaint, he’s 3-4 with a 5.58 ERA at home this season. In September, Toussaint has a 5.70 ERA.
We are going to go run line on this one, thinking maybe this turns into a bullpen game and things could get crazy, but we will still bet on the Diamondbacks to win when the dust settles in Chicago.
Best MLB Bets for September 28th: Diamondbacks ML (-155)
New York Yankees (+155) at Toronto Blue Jays (-185) – 7:07 PM EST
Yesterday belonged to Gerrit Cole and the final statement of his Cy Young case.
Thursday will belong to the Toronto Blue Jays and Chris Bassitt.
Bassitt has a 7-4 record and 3.08 ERA at home this year. He’s 2-1 and has a 3.33 ERA in September. He’s 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA over the last 30 days. Check – Check – Check!
Oh, and Chris Bassitt’s arguably best performance this season came against the Yankees earlier this season: 7 innings, 3 hits, 0 runs, 7 strikeouts, 1 walk.
The Yankees will start Luke Weaver, who has had a brutal season with the Reds, Mariners, and Yankees. Weaver has a 3-5 record with a 6.47 ERA, .300 OBA, and 27 home runs allowed. Expect the Blue Jays to launch some dingers on Thursday (and keep your eye on Brandon Belt who has a .556 batting average against Weaver).
The Yankees had their day on Wednesday with Aaron Judge going yard twice and Cole pitching a shutout. Thursday is Toronto’s day and we are taking the Blue Jays to win!
Best MLB Bets for September 28th: Blue Jays ML (-185)