With such a limited MLB schedule on Thursday, we are hunting for the best MLB bets for August 31st that can be found in such a small slate.
While the betting won’t be easy (or plentiful), there is one matchup on Thursday that should have everyone’s attention…not just in MLB but across the sports world.
Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers – it doesn’t get better than this, and if we are lucky, this is an NLCS preview.
But, that isn’t the only game – so, without further delay, let’s reveal our best MLB bets for August 31st …
New York Yankees (-125) at Detroit Tigers (+105) – 1:10 PM EST
With their win on Wednesday, the Yankees won a series – breaking a 10-series winless streak (it’s been a month since they won a series). If we were talking about the Tigers, maybe that last note wouldn’t sound so crazy, but for the Yankees to be playing this bad tells you a lot.
Hope is on the way for Yankee fans with some hot-shot prospects joining the squad on Friday. But before “The Martian” makes his Yankees debut Friday, New York still has a game against Detroit.
The Yankees are starting Clarke Schmidt, who has a 5-3 road record with a 5.25 ERA. In August, he’s 1-2 overall with a 5.04 ERA. Schmidt is coming off two strong outings in his last two starts against the Red Sox and Rays.
But, even with Schmidt pitching well, the better starting pitcher in this game is actually Matt Manning of the Detroit Tigers.
2-2 with a 3.38 ERA in August, Manning has been better on the road than at home, but his pitching stats lately have us believing he could help the Tigers keep the game close on Thursday.
Detroit is a surprisingly good 42-31 on the run line after a loss. New York on the run line after a win? 31-33.
Yes, the Yankees are getting hot, but the season-long stats show an inconsistency that we have to buy into given the trends.
We will take Detroit to cover as the underdog in the series finale as one of our best MLB bets for August 31st.
Best MLB bets for August 31st: Tigers +1.5 (-160)
Miami Marlins (-165) at Washington Nationals (+140) – 7:05 PM EST
In his last start, Joan Adon pitched brilliantly against the Miami Marlins. Helping the Nats earn the road win, Adon went 6-innings, gave up just 3 hits, and didn’t issue a run.
But, again, that was on the road. Adon has been good on the road this season: 2-0, 1.93 ERA, .125 OBA, and 2 walks to 12 strikeouts. Where has Adon struggled? You guessed it – home in Washington D.C.
Jordan Adon at home is winless, has a 9.90 ERA and has allowed almost as many home runs (3) as walks (4) in 10 innings pitched.
We doubt he’ll be as brilliant on Thursday as he was in his previous start against Miami. This is a big factor in our pick for this game as one of our best MLB bets for August 31st.
As for the Marlins starter, Braxton has been better on the road this year with a 4-2 record, 2.86 ERA, and .234 OBA. Plus, Garrett in August has been solid with a 2-2 record and 3.54 ERA.
In two previous outings against the Nationals this season, Garrett is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA and only one walk to 11 strikeouts.
This is a tricky game to pick. We’d certainly consider the Nationals on the run line to cover as an underdog. But, if we had to give our highest level “confidence play” for this game, we are going with the Marlins to win as one of our best MLB bets for August 31st.
Best MLB bets for August 31st: Marlins ML (-165)
Atlanta Braves (-130) at Los Angeles Dodgers (+110) – 10:10 PM EST
In a matchup of arguably the two best teams in MLB, the Atlanta Braves have the right man on the mound for game 1 of the series against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Atlanta puts Spencer Strider on the bump, bringing with him a 15-4 record, 3.46 ERA, and .204 OBA – plus he has 236 strikeouts to just 47 walks. NL Cy Young caliber stuff and stats.
And, somehow Strider has been even better lately. In August, the Braces ace is 4-1 with a 2.37 ERA, 0 home runs allowed, and just a .162 OBA. That’s crazy dominant given all the innings Strider has already pitched this season.
The only blemish for Strider – there are some Dodgers who hit him well. Mookie Betts (no surprise there), Jason Heyward, and Will Smith all have a .500 batting average or better against Strider. However, those numbers can be deceiving since no LA hitter has more than 6 official at-bats against the Braves righty.
Here’s the issue taking the Braves, even with Spencer Strider pitching: the Dodgers pitcher, Lance Lynn, has been fantastic in August and has good numbers against the Braves.
In August, Lynn is 4-0 with a 2.03 ERA (somehow topping Strider for an even better month of August statistically) though that does include 6 home runs allowed.
In his career, Lynn has faced the Braves hitters in a combined 95 ABs, allowing just 18 hits (which is a .189 batting average), and only issuing two homers (one to Ronald Acuna Jr. and the other to Eddie Rosario).
Hard to bet against the Braves to win. Hard to bet against the Dodgers to not cover. So, why fight the urge to take both?
Best MLB bets for August 31st: Braves ML (-135) and Dodgers +1.5 (+115)
