As we present our best MLB bets for September 14th, we realize it’s been a few days since we provided all you MLB bettors with our favorite bets of the day.
That needs to change!
While not a full slate of games, we get a Yankees-Red Sox doubleheader to add a little more rivalry to our Thursday schedule (even if both teams are dreadful this season). Plus, a couple of other matchups that will definitely have our money on the outcome.
Want to know which ones? Here you go – our best MLB bets for September 14th!
Washington Nationals (+135) at Pittsburgh Pirates (-155) – 12:35 PM EST
It may surprise some to learn that the Pirates have a winning record this year, when the home favorite. They are 14-10 in that situation. Can’t say the same thing about the Nationals as a road dog – they have a sub-.500 record.
The Pirates moneyline record as a home favorite should improve with the help of Mitch Keller, who hasn’t been the stud of late like he was in April and May but is still 6-3 at home with a 3.18 ERA and 5-2 in day games with a 3.47 ERA.
For whatever reason, home games and day games have produced the best results from Mitch Keller. Good sign for Bucs bettors.
Nats starter Josiah Gray has a low ERA on the road, but a losing record – plus day games have been bad for Gray. Opponents are hitting .285 against him in the sunshine compared to .237 at night.
While we were considering a play on OVER 8.5 runs, we don’t have the same level of confidence on that bet. So, instead, the first of our best MLB bets for September 14th is a Pirates moneyline bet.
Best MLB Bets for September 14th: Pirates ML (-155)
Miami Marlins (-115) at Milwaukee Brewers (-105) – 2:10 PM EST
If Miami can sneak into the playoffs, Marlins-Brewers could be a first round matchup. But, that possibility still very much waits on the arm of Marlins starter Eury Perez, who is trying to get a win on Thursday.
Perez has been better at home than the road this year (a fact that has us a little wary – especially with his recent struggles since returning from the minors), but his day-night splits heavily favor day games…especially a 4-1 record and .209 OBA that includes only four home runs allowed.
Our expectation is Perez keeps the score low against the Brewers.
Speaking of the Brewers, Milwaukee’s starter Adrian Houser is undefeated in day games, with a lower ERA and OBA than at night. However, he hasn’t pitched well at home and he’s making his first start since returning from the IL.
We’re not so sure which Adrian Houser we’ll see on Thursday. Therefore, we like Miami to keep it a close game, if not outright.
Now, the moneyline play doesn’t get our dollars because of the mystery behind Perez on the road and Houser off the IL, but taking Miami to cover on the run line is a good bet and one of our best MLB bets for September 14th.
Best MLB Bets for September 14th: Marlins +1.5 (-195)
San Francisco Giants (-250) at Colorado Rockies (+210) – 8:40 PM EST
We have lots of confidence in Logan Webb on Thursday, even while pitching in Colorado, the best park for hitters in the MLB.
This season against the Rockies, Webb is 2-0 in three starts with a 1.77 ERA, a .243 OBA, and only one home run allowed. Plus, Webb has been strong in September with a 2.13 ERA and just a .178 OBA.
It explains why the Giants are the heavy favorite on Thursday. That, and Colorado’s starting pitcher Chase Anderson has a 9.82 ERA in September, a 5.26 ERA at home, and he’s 0-5 on the season.
If we believe in any outcome tomorrow, we are buying the Giants to win. Put that together with some other high-confidence plays, and you’ll have a nice parlay or two on Thursday. While the return isn’t great straight up, this pick is still one of our best MLB bets for September 14th. Use it however you wish.
Best MLB Bets for September 14th: Giants ML (-250)
