Is there anything better than Friday night baseball?
The work week is over – the weekend has started – and we have a full schedule of baseball to sit back and enjoy.
Does life get any better?
But if we are going to make the most of our Friday night baseball action, we need to put a little betting action to work too, right?
So, here are a few picks to hopefully get your weekend off on a winning note. Make sure to follow good bankroll management habits to give yourself the best chance at turning a profit.
Oakland Athletics (-110) at Washington Nationals (-110) – 7:05 PM EST
When the Nationals are a home underdog, the OVER is 23-27 (3rd worst record in the league). When the Athletics have been a road favorite, the OVER is 0-1…the A’s haven’t been a road favorite often this year. But if we just looked at the Athletics on the road, the OVER is 25-31 (3rd worst in the league).
A’s against Nationals in Washington on Friday should be an UNDER play – we are stating that right off the bat.
A’s right-hander Paul Blackburn is coming off his best start of the season: six-innings of no run, two hit ball that was impressive. Nats righty Joan Adon is an opener that shouldn’t be out there long.
The pitchers matter, but not nearly as much as these offenses. The A’s are the worst in baseball and the Nationals are in the bottom 10. If you see this game at UNDER 10.5, jump on it like a fire you want to put out. If you find it at UNDER 9.5, still take it but maybe only a unit or two.
Best MLB Bets for August 11th: A’s-Nationals UNDER 9.5 (-115) and A’s-Nationals UNDER 10.5 (-185)
Milwaukee Brewers (-166) at Chicago White Sox (+150) – 8:10 PM EST
Right now, Corbin Burnes is in the discussion for the best pitcher in MLB since the start of July. Just looking over the last 30 days, Burnes has a 2-1 record, 1.69 ERA, and only one home run allowed, while striking out 39 hitters, and allowing a dominant .119 OBA.
That’s Cy Young Award-caliber pitching – at least over the last month or so. And, for those considering any left-handed hitters in the White Sox lineup, think again! Burnes is holding lefties to just a .165 batting average (43 hits in 260 at-bats). Andrew Benintendi and other Chicago lefties should NOT be in your DFS lineup or in a player prop bet on Friday.
Getting back to the game bet, Michael Kopech’s past 30 days are the other end of the spectrum compared to Corbin Burnes. Kopech has a 2-3 record, 5.82 ERA, has allowed seven home runs, and more walks than strikeouts over that span of time.
Just looking at the starting pitching matchup, Milwaukee appears to be an obvious play.
Then consider this – the White Sox are 11-18 in interleague action (4th worst in the league) and 11-20 as a home underdog (5th worst in the league).
Matchups, stats, trends – all signs point to the Brewers on the moneyline.
Best MLB Bets for August 11th: Brewers ML (-166)
Baltimore Orioles (+120) at Seattle Mariners (-145)- 10:10 PM EST
This season, few teams have been better on the road than the Baltimore Orioles.
The O’s are 35-21 on the road (2nd best in the league), 23-17 on the road as an away underdog (4th best in the league), and 47-30 in non-division games (2nd best in the league).
Plus, Kyle Gibson has more wins, a lower ERA, and a lower OBA on the road than at Camden Yards. Only issue is Gibson struggled in a previous start against the Mariners earlier this year allowing five runs in three innings, which included seven total hits allowed and three walks to four strikeouts.
If Gibson’s ugly numbers against the M’s somewhat offset the stats the Orioles have on the road, the Mariners starting pitcher is the factor that ultimately tips the scales in Seattle’s favor.
Luis Castillo had a bad performance in his most recent outing – allowing seven runs over six innings to the Angels. But, prior to that game, Castillo had a quality start in five straight games.
Why we really like Luis Castillo today is his home-road split difference. Castillo is GREAT at home: 5-3, 2.79 ERA, 11 HR, 18 BB, 96 K, .196 OBA.
Sure, the home runs are higher than you’d expect, but the weather on Friday night won’t be homer-friendly, so the conditions will only add to Castillo’s home-field advantage.
We never like to bet against the O’s (you saw those impressive stats), but Castillo on the mound has us going with the Mariners on the moneyline.
Best MLB Bets for August 11th: Mariners ML (-145)
