The best MLB bets for August 4th have been slightly overshadowed. After the NFL kicked off last night with the Hall of Fame Game, everyone got hyped for the start of the football season and started to forget about baseball. Clearly, these people aren’t true sports bettors!
The MLB has playoff-race-defining action in the American League and National League this weekend, with a fantastic schedule of starting pitchers on the mound for Friday’s games.
So sure, we are excited about football – but MLB playoff races are better than preseason football (no matter what Twitter memes say)!
Here is a look at some of the games that have our attention and our betting dollars today.
Best MLB Bets for August 4th: Atlanta Braves (-165) at Chicago Cubs (+140) – 2:20 PM EST
The best team in baseball against arguably the hottest team in baseball.
Atlanta is one win away from being the first team across either league to reach 70 total wins this year. And, if the Braves were in need of some help, Max Friend returns to the mound after a multi-month stint on the injured list.
The rich keep getting richer.
That said, the Braves are only 9-8 since the All-Star break. The Cubs? They are a ridiculous 13-6 and have gone from sellers a few weeks ago to only 2.5 games behind first place in the NL Central.
Starting to see a few more believers in the North Siders – but how should those Cub fans feel about Friday’s game?
With Kyle Hendricks on the mound, Chicago should keep it close. While Hendricks ERA is worse in July than in June, he’s been better in his last three starts and over the season has pitched better in day games.
Friday at Wrigley means a 2:20 pm first pitch – perfect for Hendricks. While the winner is harder to predict, we do like the Cubs to cover on the run line as the home underdog – especially at 2.5 runs, where the odds aren’t that bad on the alternative line.
MLB Best Bet: Cubs +1.5 (-113) / Cubs +2.5 (-175)
Best MLB Bets for August 4th: New York Mets (+150) at Baltimore Orioles (-175) – 7:05 PM EST
The best days of the season are ahead of the Orioles and way behind the Mets (if they had any “best days” at all this year). This series could be a microcosm of each team’s season.
The Mets have moved a good portion of their starting rotation over the past week – but David Peterson is still on the squad. Oh, and there is a very good reason why no one was calling about David Peterson at the trade deadline.
Peterson has a 1-5 record with a 8.41 ERA in road games this year. Tack on 8 home runs allowed and a .336 OBA and Peterson is one of the worst pitchers on the road in MLB.
Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Dean Kremer might have a much better record at home than Peterson on the road, but the ERA, home runs allowed, and OBA are all high at Camden Yards this year.
And if Kremer’s 5.51 ERA at home wasn’t noticeable, his 5.17 ERA over his last three starts certainly is eye-catching.
With both pitchers struggling to keep their ERA below 5.50, it definitely feels like a high offense night in Baltimore and a great opportunity to take the OVER. One note – the line might be set at 9 (-120). You can do that, but I’d also recommend getting the “hook” (or 0.5 runs) in your favor and take the OVER 8.5 (-145) as well.
MLB Best Bet: Mets-Orioles OVER 8.5 (-145) / Mets-Orioles OVER 9 (-120)
Best MLB bets for August 4th: White Sox (+140) at Cleveland Guardians (-160) – 7:10 PM EST
There is one team that hasn’t been getting much love in the best MLB bets for August 4th discussion. The White Sox are like a Rodney Dangerfield routine – they get no respect from sports bettors. And, the stats prove why that disrespect has been earned!
On the road, the White Sox are 20-38 on the moneyline (4th worst in MLB). Chicago is 15-32 this season as an away underdog (5th worst record in MLB). After an off day, they are 6-10 (5th worst in MLB).
Starting to see a trend developing in these numbers.
It doesn’t help that starting pitcher Mike Clevinger has a higher ERA, OBA, home runs allowed, and walks allowed on the road compared to at home.
Yes, the Guardians starter is coming off a 5-earned run performance against the White Sox last Saturday, but even if Logan Allen only makes it through 5 or 6 innings, Cleveland is the better play in this game.
MLB Best Bet: Guardians (-160)