Saturday may not be the day for blowouts across Major League Baseball. Weather could limit offenses, along with a number of interesting pitching matchups that have us believing games are going to be a bit tighter.
Sure – there are some candidates for a larger margin of victory, but those are few. We believe Saturday could be a great day to play some underdogs on the run line.
So, let’s give out some picks and hopefully find a few diamonds on the field for you today.
New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles
Yesterday, we encouraged our readers (and those that tail our plays) to take the Mets-Orioles OVER not just 8.5, but also OVER 9.5. The weather, pitching matchup, and lineup all pointed in the same direction – up on runs!
Saturday may be a different day, but the trends, the weather, the matchups all have a familiar ring to them.
The Mets start Tyler Megill, who has been dreadful on the road. 2-3, 7.99 ERA, 6 home runs allowed, 22 walks to 28 strikeouts, and he’s allowing a .345 batting average to opposing hitters. With how the Orioles offense is rolling, much like Friday, they might cover this OVER on their own offensively.
Just in case we need a few more runs to cash on our play, the O’s starter has had his own struggles at Camden yards. Kyle Gibson has a winning record at home, but he also has a 5.55 ERA and is allowing a .299 OBA. All signs point to OVER 8.5 runs.
But – head fake – that’s not the pick we are giving out.
Baltimore is 23-16 on the moneyline as a home favorite, they are 39-27 after a win, and Kyle Gibson has been better over the last 30 days with a 2-0 record and 3.86 ERA. Sure, we like the OVER in this game, but the best play is O’s to get the “W”.
MLB Best Bet: Orioles ML (-155)
Arizona Diamondbacks at Minnesota Twins
Starting with some betting trends – the Diamondbacks are 16-13 on the run line in interleague games, while the Twins are 12-14. Arizona is 20-13 on the run line as an away underdog, Minnesota is 20-28 on the run line as a home favorite.
The betting trends have our attention, but maybe you need more convincing. How about the pitching matchup?
The D’backs Ryne Nelson is 4-1 on the road, has a 2.67 ERA, and is holding opponents to a .223 batting average. The Twins’ Kenta Maeda is 1-2 at home, has a 6.45 ERA, and opponents are hitting .304 against him.
Is it just us or are the Diamondbacks to cover on the run line an obvious play? In a game that shouldn’t see a lot of scoring (UNDER 8.5 should be a good play – UNDER 9.5 is a great one), we like Arizona to keep it a one-run difference through the final out.
MLB Best Bet: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-148)
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are barely holding on in the AL West as the Rangers, Astros, and even Mariners continue to win and climb closer to a Wild Card spot.
Saturday’s game is another in a pivotal series for these two teams. Picking a winner won’t be easy given how the two battled in the previous two games. But, the winner isn’t what we are focused on.
George Kirby has been great this year for the Mariners – winning record (and it could have been better if the team had backed him up), low ERA, great walks-to-strikeout ratio.
Only blemish we could find on George Kirby was a 4.1-inning loss against the Angels in which he allowed four runs, nine hits, and a home run to (you guessed it) Shohei Ohtani.
Now, that start came on April 3rd and since then, Kirby has been a strong starter for Seattle – but it’s a bad start neither Kirby nor the Angels will forget.
As for those Angels, they counter with Tyler Anderson – who hasn’t faced Seattle this season – but he is pitching his best baseball of the season. July was the first month Anderson had his ERA below 5.00 – ultimately getting it to 3.28 with only two home runs allowed.
Mariner hitters have a .250 lifetime average against Anderson with just a single dinger, three RBIs, and zero walks to eight Ks. Anderson might not be the winning pitcher, but he will keep LA in the game.
And that is all we are asking for – Los Angeles to cover the run line as a home underdog. They are 10-1 on the run line as a home underdog, best record in MLB.
MLB Best Bet: Angels +1.5 (-140)
By Butt Fumble Sports
Butt Fumble Sports is a sports content network focused on sports betting, fantasy sports, and ranting about sports. Our sports betting picks and fantasy plays are based on research, data, and analytics to try and provide sports fans with the most advantageous opportunities.
