The best MLB bets for August 3rd on Thursday’s MLB schedule feature a number of recently traded pitchers making debuts for their new squads. That is very much noteworthy for sports bettors.
In a sport that is all about routine and consistency, change is a powerful variable. It can cause disruption – slumps – or it can re-energize and power certain players in almost superhero levels.
In the past, Randy Johnson for the Houston Astros and CC Sabathia for the Milwaukee Brewers standout as aces dealt at the deadline who delivered MVP-level performances down the homestretch of the season.
Will we see Michael Lorenzen, Jack Flaherty, Max Scherzer, or one of the other pitchers dealt at the deadline deliver that level of return on investment? Probably not, but the hope for that kind of outcome starts on Thursday for many of them.
Chicago White Sox (+220) at Texas Rangers (-270) – 2:05 PM EST
Speaking of debuts, while White Sox-Rangers may not sound like must-see TV to the casual sports fan, Thursday’s game features the Lone Star state debut of Max Scherzer – and that is absolutely worth seeing.
Scherzer goes from the underwhelming, disappointing Mets to the outperforming-the-expectation-and-now-all-in Rangers. Given Mad Max’s postseason history and passion for pitching in big games, the change of scenery was most likely welcomed and will probably help bring out the best of Scherzer over the remainder of the season.
In many ways, Scherzer’s current stats don’t carry much weight – different ballpark, different teammates, and a different league’s opponents. In facing the White Sox, only Elvis Andrus, Andrew Benintendi, and Yasmani Grandal have at-bats against Scherzer – and they are a combined 9-for-50 (.180 batting average) with one home run, two RBIs, eight walks,and fifteen strikeouts.
Focusing less on Scherzer and more on the White Sox, they’ll start Touki Toussaint – who has a 0-2 record with a 5.14 ERA on the road. His record, ERA, and OBA is worse in day games over night games (first pitch for this one is 2:05 pm EST).
Between the excitement over Scherzer’s debut and a White Sox starting pitcher who has us screaming fade, it feels like Texas is an easy moneyline play.
However, Rangers on the moneyline is -240, and we’d like to try and over a bet that’s a little better than those odds. So, our recommendation is to believe in the Rangers to cover 1.5 on the run line. Texas is 25-18 on the run line as a home favorite this year (that’s the best record in MLB).
Best MLB bets for August 3rd: Rangers -1.5 (-115)
Cincinnati Reds (+135) at Chicago Cubs (-155) – 8:05 PM EST
The Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago Cubs…which one do you think is the hotter team right now?
Sure – the Reds are first in the NL Central and have everyone in baseball buzzing about postseason potentially returning to Cincinnati. But the Reds haven’t been as “red hot” since the All-Star break.
Cincy has a 9-10 record and a negative run differential. Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs have a 13-6 record since the midsummer classic and have scored 41 runs in the past three games against the Reds.
You saw that correctly – 5 runs in game 1 of the series against the Reds, 20 in game 2, and 16 in game 3!
Whether it’s bad Reds pitching or good Cubs hitting, the Cubs are mashing – and to our original question – Chicago is the better team right now.
Now the Cubs will start Jameson Taillon on Thursday, and his 5-6 record and 5.46 ERA over the season may not inspire much belief in the Cubbies. But those stats are deceiving, because in the last 30 days, Taillon is 3-0, had a 1.78 ERA, and has allowed just one home run and a .191 OBA.
Luke Weaver, the Reds starting pitcher, over the last 30 days? 1-1, 6.33 ERA, 8 home runs allowed, and opponents have a .292 batting average against him. Weaver perfectly represents the Reds recent pitching struggles that have them sub-.500 since the break, and Taillon is that surprise winner that is very much like the Cubs right now, who are continuing to creep up the NL Central standings.
That climb will continue for the Cubs on Thursday.
Best MLB bets for August 3rd: Cubs ML (-154)
Seattle Mariners (+130) at Los Angeles Angels (-150) – 9:38 PM EST
When Shohei Ohtani is on the mound pitching, you know the Angels are going to be a popular bet. That doesn’t mean it’s a good bet.
In the month of July, Ohtani had a 2-2 record, 4.97 ERA, allowed 6 home runs, and he had his worst walk-to-strikeout ratio of any month since April. He does have two good starts against the Mariners this season, and strong lifetime stats against Seattle’s current roster, but that does not mean Ohtani and the Angels are worth your money.
In fact, it’s the Mariners that have my attention and my cash wager. Bryan Woo, Seattle’s starter doesn’t inspire much confidence with a high ERA, but a few betting trends have us disregarding Woo’s struggles.
The Mariners are 21-9 on the run line as an away underdog (3rd best in the American League), 15-11 on the run line in division games (5th best in the American League), and the Angels are 13-28 as a home favorite (2nd worst in the American League.
As the public piles money on Shohei Ohtani and the Angels, let those odds shift in your favor as you ride with the house and take the Mariners on the run line.
Best MLB bets for August 3rd: Mariners +1.5 (-155)