The NFL regular season is right around the corner, which means it’s time to make some predictions and do an AFC East Preview 2023. Today, we are looking at one of the best divisions in football which includes the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, and New England Patriots. Let’s get started and see what these four teams have to offer in this AFC East preview for 2023.
All odds and futures bets come courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting Odds for AFC East Preview 2023
The AFC East is arguably the toughest division in football heading into the 2023 NFL season. The Bills have held firm and still look to be contenders. Meanwhile, the Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins have loaded up on talented players all hoping to overthrow the Bills.
Buffalo Bills (+120)
The Bills came out on top of the AFC East for the third straight year with a 13-3 record last season. The bookies expect the Bills to rack up a fourth straight division championship this season.
Key Player: Josh Allen
As good as Stefon Diggs is, it’s hard to pick anyone other than Josh Allen as the Bills’ key player coming into this season. The 27-year-old was one of five players nominated for last season’s MVP award.
Only Patrick Mahomes threw more touchdown passes than Allen last season. He was also second to Mahomes in offensive expected points added and sixth in completion percentage over expected.
Story to watch: Is this the year the Bills win it all?
Winning the AFC East in 2023 is one thing. Winning the Super Bowl is another. The question for the Bills is whether this will finally be the year they get the job done and lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
As we discussed above, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs could propel the Bills to the Super Bowl. With that being said, it takes a lot more than two players to win an NFL championship, especially in such a stacked AFC with teams like the Chiefs and Bengals sure to challenge as well.
Best futures bet: Bills to win the AFC East (+120)
Even if it’s a bit boring, it’s hard to deny that picking the Bills to win the AFC East is still a value pick. Other teams in this division may have gotten better, but they aren’t as good as the Bills yet.
If you’re looking for something a little more adventurous, consider taking the Bills to win the AFC at +450.
New York Jets (+270)
The New York Jets finished dead last in the AFC East last season with a 7-10 record. With the addition of players like Aaron Rodgers, Allen Lazard, and Will McDonald, the Jets should be much better this season.
Key Player: Aaron Rodgers
While the Jets have made many additions this offseason, no one they brought in is bigger than Aaron Rodgers. The Jets sent away their 2023 first-round pick, a 2023 second-round pick, a 2023 sixth-round pick, and a conditional 2024 second-round pick to Green Bay in exchange for the soon-to-be 40-year-old Packers quarterback.
Rodgers was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL last season. His 39.3 adjusted quarterback rating (QBR) was the sixth worst in the league among active quarterbacks. On the bright side, Rodgers did throw 26 touchdowns last year, which was good enough for seventh-best in the league.
Story to watch: How will Aaron Rodgers fare away from Green Bay?
The Jets have decided to live and die by Aaron Rodgers this year. Not only did the team spend big to get him, they have done everything they can to make him comfortable in New York. The Jets have signed two of Rodgers’ former receivers as well as his hand-picked offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett.
Taken together, the Jets’ roster moves represent a huge gamble on an aging quarterback. For this gamble to pay off, Rodgers will need to give the Jets an MVP caliber season. Given recent history, this is a big ask. We’ll be watching to see if the Jets’ gamble pays off.
Best futures bet: Jets Under 9.5 wins (-105)
The Jets start out this season with six incredibly tough games, starting with a Monday Night Football matchup against their division rivals the Bills. After that, the Jets take on the Cowboys, Patriots, Chiefs, Broncos, and Eagles.
An early season slip-up against this tough competition could see the Jets fall short in their first season with Aaron Rodgers at the helm of their offense, especially since the Jets’ overall schedule is ranked the seventh toughest in the league according to 2022 NFL win-loss records.
Miami Dolphins (+300)
The Miami Dolphins finished last season in second place in the AFC East with a respectable 9-8 record before getting knocked out in the playoffs by the Bills. A healthy Tua Tagovailoa and refreshed defense under new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio could see the Dolphins go much further this season.
Key Player: Tua Tagovailoa
The Dolphins have more stars on their team than just about any team in the AFC. Receivers like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle along with defensive players like Jalen Ramsey and David Long Jr. make the Dolphins solid on both sides of the ball. All of this is worthless without a strong quarterback, which is what Miami lacked for much of last season.
When not out with injury, Tua Tagovailoa pulled everything Miami has together and turned them into a formidable squad. If Miami wants to make the playoffs again, Tua will need to stay healthy and pull it all together again.
Story to watch: Tua Tagovailoa’s health
Tua Tagovailoa missed four games last season due to a variety of injuries, including three concussions. The Dolphins faced significant criticism for how they handled Tua’s injuries and playing him before he was ready, which means it’s likely that won’t happen again this season.
If Tua is out for any significant time, the Dolphins will have to fall back on the unproven Mike White, who is unlikely to pull up any trees. Basically, for the Dolphins, it’s no Tua, no party. He will need to be healthy if Miami is to achieve anything this season.
Best futures bet: Dolphins to make the playoffs YES (-110)
Even though we think bettors should be cautious of the Dolphins due to Tua’s health, the overall strength of the team should be enough to get Miami into the playoffs without him.
New England Patriots (+800)
The Patriots haven’t finished last in their division since the 1999-2000 season. In other words, the Patriots haven’t finished bottom since before they drafted Tom Brady. According to DraftKings, this streak will be broken this season.
Key Player: JuJu Smith-Schuster
We’ve picked all quarterbacks so far in our AFC East preview for 2023. We’re bucking the trend with our last key player because of just how much we think JuJu Smith-Schuster could help his quarterback.
Mac Jones is a young quarterback with a lot to prove. By getting Smith-Schuster, the Patriots are doing all they can to help Jones prove his doubters wrong. Smith-Schuster is a notable upgrade over Jakobi Meyers, who was Jones’ prior main target, so we think both Jones and Smith-Schuster could put up big numbers this year.
Story to watch: Will Bill O’Brien transform Mac Jones?
Another reason to be optimistic for the Pats this season is the addition of Bill O’Brien to the backroom staff. O’Brien is a Bill Belichick alum known for being an offensive guru. He replaces Matt Patricia, who many blame for the Patriots’ poor season last year.
If O’Brien’s playcalling has the effect that many expect it will, the 2023 NFL season could finally be the year Mac Jones breaks out and becomes a consistent star in this league.
Best futures bet: Patriots Over 7.5 wins (+140)
The Patriots’ era of dominance may be past them, but the Pats are still an incredibly consistent team. The Patriots have won at least seven games in each season since Tom Brady’s departure ahead of the 2020-21 season. With the readdition of offensive guru Bill O’Brien, the Pats could very easily achieve an eight-win season next year.
AFC East Preview 2023: Biggest Divisional Games of the Year
The AFC East features four tough teams this year, so we expect lots of high-quality matchups between these teams.
Week 1- Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
The Monday Night Football 2023 schedule kicks off with an AFC East divisional matchup between the Jets and the Bills. All eyes will be on Aaron Rodgers who will be making his long-awaited debut for the Jets. Josh Allen told ESPN that his goal is to “dominate the AFC East.” A Week 1 win against the Jets would put the Bills on track to do just that.
Week 3 – New England Patriots at New York Jets
Another early-season AFC East matchup could be one of the most important of the season. The Patriots will be coming into this game following a Week 2 matchup against the Dolphins. For the Jets, this game is one of the two winnable games of their first six. A win for either team in this game could be pivotal for the rest of the season and for the AFC East standings.
Week 18 – Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Week 18 matchups are sometimes used to rest players and prepare for the playoffs. If the AFC East is as tight as we expect it to be, the Dolphins vs. Bills Week 18 matchup should be a great game. Provided both quarterbacks are healthy throughout the season, the Bills and Dolphins could both be fighting to be top of the division. If not that, the Bills could very easily have their sights on securing home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
AFC East quarterbacks
Bills – Josh Allen
Josh Allen was one of the five best players in the NFL last year. Barring injury, Allen should be able to do it all again this year and potentially even lead the Bills to their first Super Bowl appearance since 1994.
Dolphins – Tua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa is one of the smallest quarterbacks in the league. He’s unfortunately also one of the most injured. Tua suffered three concussions as well as hip and back injuries last year. The Dolphins’ season this year depends on Tua staying healthy.
Jets – Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers joined the Jets this offseason. He will turn 40 in December. Outside of Tom Brady and Brett Favre, quarterbacks don’t usually perform past 40. For the Jets’ sake, let’s hope Rodgers can buck the trend of his predecessors and have a big year one in New York.
Patriots – Mac Jones
The 2023 season will be Mac Jones’ third in New England. Mediocre is the best way to describe Jones’ first two, so this year has the potential to be a pivotal one. If Jones fails to deliver again, New England may start to look elsewhere.With that being said, investments in the roster and backroom staff should help Jones thrive this season.
AFC East Preview 2023 Final Thoughts
On paper, the AFC East looks like it will be one of the most exciting divisions in the NFL this season. The Bills remain Super Bowl contenders and their division rivals have all made significant additions. We think the Bills will still come out on top, but it could be a lot closer than many think.