Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em Strategy: Five Best RB Plays for Upcoming NFL Season

With the start of the NFL season right around the corner — the 2023 season will officially kick off with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions — more fans are looking to sharpen their Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em strategy.

The popular daily fantasy sports contests at Underdog Fantasy have sports fans crunching the numbers as they look for their favorite entries for the upcoming NFL season.

Since we’ve already covered the best Underdog Fantasy quarterback entries for the upcoming season, we now switch our attention to the best Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em stragy for running back entries. Here are our five favorite running back Underdog Fantasy entries for the 2023 NFL season.

Tony Pollard 1050.5 Rushing Yards: Higher or Lower?

How Tony Pollard’s 2022 season ended has lingered in the minds of many NFL analysts and fantasy owners. Will the injury suffered by the Dallas Cowboys star running back months ago prevent him from achieving a high level of production this season?

In 2022, Pollard had 193 carries, 1,007 rushing yards, and 9 rushing touchdowns. Yet, despite that being a solid year statistically, Pollard only had three 100+ yard rushing games, he had two games with fewer than 10 rushing yards, and in the final two weeks of the season, he combined for a total of 38 rushing yards.

So, that 1,000+ rushing yard season in 2022 could have been even better (and that was with Zeke Elliott taking carries from him). Tony Pollard’s potential production is far greater in 2023 than the stats he actually delivered in 2022.

In Dallas, it’s not just “no more Zeke”…it’s no more Kellen Moore. And the former Cowboys OC liked to throw the football – while new play-caller and head coach Mike McCarthy has made sure everyone in Dallas, Texas, and the rest of the United States that the Cowboys will be emphasizing running the football.

No one’s gonna argue with the man since Dak Prescott regressed from a low interception QB to one of the worst turnover-creators at the QB position last year. Running the ball means less pressure on Dak – and a whole lot more opportunity for Tony Pollard.

So, in review, Tony Pollard has recovered from his injuries and is healthy for week one. The four weeks of sub-20 yard rushing performances in 2022 are unlikely to repeat in 2023 – and the man still had 1,007 rushing yards even with those four weeks of poor production. And, the Cowboys are focused on running the football and using Tony Pollard on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down.

What is there not to like about Pollard? We believe he will go HIGHER than 1050.5 rushing yards this season as one of our top Underdog Fantasy RB entries for the 2023 NFL season.

Best Underdog Fantasy RB Pick Em Entries: Tony Pollard 1050.5 Rushing Yards (HIGHER)

James Conner 705.5 Rushing Yards: Higher or Lower?

With Kyler Murray still recovering from injury and the Cardinals in “2024 Draft” mode from Week 1 (and don’t let anyone try to convince you they are anything but a bottom 5 in the NFL team), most people would be ignoring every player on Arizona’s roster.

Sports media networks aren’t going to devote too much time to the Cardinals. Fantasy football owners will probably avoid drafting any Cardinals. Arizona’s the team no one will be focused on for almost the entirety of the 2023 season.

And all of that negativity may be why James Conner is worth keeping an eye on.

Now, we are not saying Conner will be the savior for Arizona, nor will he contend with the elite running backs in the NFL statistically. What we are thinking is Conner is being undervalued and underappreciated.

What do we know about James Conner? He is physical. He isn’t a burner – he won’t go for long runs (his longest in 2022 was 23 yards). He is a downhill runner who will take the punishment to gain the extra yard or two.

Last season, the Cardinals top running back played in 13 games and had 183 carries, 782 total rushing yards, 7 rushing touchdowns, and averaged 4.3 rush yards per carry. He only had one 100+ yard rushing game, but he also didn’t have a game with fewer than 25 rushing yards.

Plus, Conner’s production went up in the back half of the season and increased even more after Kyler Murray suffered his season-ending injury.

If Conner can stay healthy and play 15 to 17 games this season, his carries will increase and likely go above 200. In his 6-year NFL career, Conner is averaging 4.2 yards per carry and the lowest yards-per-carry total he’s had in any season (2021 playing for the Cardinals) was 3.7 yards.

Doing the math, if Conner can play to his career average – or at worst his lowest yards-per-carry average – while getting over 200 carries on the season, than he will easily go above 705.5 rushing yards.

Does the NFC West present some tough defensive fronts? Absolutely! The 49ers are elite. The Seahawks are an improved defense. The Rams still have Aaron Donald.

But if the Cards keep feeding Conner the rock, he will cover enough ground to produce numbers above preseason expectations. This makes picking Conner to gain more than 705.5 yards on the ground another one of our best Underdog Fantasy RB Pick Em entries for the 2023 NFL season.

Best Underdog Fantasy RB Pick Em Entries: James Conner 705.5 Rushing Yards (HIGHER)

Ezekiel Elliott 4.5 Rushing Touchdowns: Higher or Lower?

Ezekiel Elliott is a running back for the New England Patriots – few could have believed that’s where he would end up when the 2022 season ended.

But, now that Zeke is in New England, will Bill Belichick and new OC Bill O’Brien feed Elliott the ball?

Before we talk stats, let’s talk numbers – contract numbers. Ezekiel Elliott signed for a base salary of $1.55 million with a signing bonus of $600k and $3 million in incentives. Of that $3 million, a reported $1.5 would be for on-field production.

So, Zeke wasn’t that expensive for the Pats and if he does want to earn his money, he’ll have to deliver on the field.

Problem is Bill Belichick agreed to that contract for a reason – offering Zeke $300k for reaching 975 yards from scrimmage (and $300k for subsequent escalators at 1,100…1,225…1,350…and 1,475 yards from scrimmage). There is no way Belichick and O’Brien are going to call Elliott’s number that frequently and even less likely that Zeke can deliver those kinds of numbers.

He simply isn’t the same running back he was early in his Cowboys career.

So why did the Patriots sign Ezekiel Elliott? TOUCHDOWNS and SHORT YARDAGE!

Rhamondre Stevenson is RB1 for New England and he’s shown lots of potential, but he is awful in short yardage situations. Whether it be between the 20s or in the red zone, Stevenson is bad at 2-yards or less situations.

You know who is really good at those situations? You guessed it – ZEKE ELLIOTT!

Bill Belichick didn’t bring in Zeke to be a true RB2, but instead to be a situational running back who can be great at short yard and red zone plays while also being a good pass blocking back.

Whether Zeke goes higher or lower on his rushing yards prediction at Underdog Fantasy this season – hard to say. But Zeke’s opportunity for touchdowns is definitely something we like prior to the start of the season.

The Patriots were last in the NFL in 2022 in red zone efficiency when it came to scoring touchdowns. Yes, a new offensive coordinator and system will help, but that stat is one of the biggest reasons the Patriots signed Ezekiel Elliott.

Zeke is going to get the ball in touchdown situations. Mac Jones isn’t good enough in the red zone to be a threat to that and Stevenson (though he will get touchdowns) has proven he’s not as good inside the 5-yard line as Elliott has been in his career.

While many projections say five total rushing touchdowns on the year – so you may be sweating it until December – we like Ezekiel Elliott to find the end zone plenty of times in 2023 for the Patriots.

Best Underdog Fantasy RB Pick Em Entries: Ezekiel Elliott 4.5 Rushing Touchdowns (HIGHER)

Jahmyr Gibbs 600.5 Rushing Yards: Higher or Lower?

Bijian Robinson got a lot of the attention leading up to the 2023 NFL Draft – and for good reason as he was the obvious top RB on the draft board. But the Lions shocked many by selecting Jahmyr Gibbs only a few picks later and then trading D’Andre Swift to Eagles – giving Gibbs the RB1 spot as a rookie.

The move shows faith in a young player. It also shows that Detroit believes Gibbs has a special collection of skills that were featured at Alabama, but maybe not noticed enough by the casual fan who heard more about Bijian at the University of Texas.

So as a refresher – Gibbs played at Georgia Tech in 2020 (he had 460 rush yards and 4 rushing TDs) and in 2021 (746 rush yards and 4 rushing TDs), before transferring to Alabama for the 2022 season. As a member of the Tide, Gibbs had 926 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns.

He is versatile, shifty, but can also put on the burner and create distance from chasing tacklers. With Swift gone, the Lions have anointed Gibbs the next RB and, if you haven’t noticed, the Lions have built one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

If you needed another reason to have faith in Gibbs this season, Detroit runs a ton of play-action to allow Jared Goff the time and space to target receivers down the field. Only way to pull off that approach is with a steady dose of running the ball to force defenses to commit. Gibbs will be a major part of the Lions offense and strategic attack.

Now, one word of warning about Gibbs – because it’s not all sunshine and rainbows. Rookie running backs can hit a wall in the final third of the regular season. With the additional games and grind of the NFL compared to the college football season, rookie running backs feel the stress of the season as much or more than any other position.

So don’t be surprised if Gibbs’ production tails off towards the end of November and into December. Or, you could even see Dan Campbell and Detroit’s coaching staff manage his carries to keep him going for the playoff push. Either way, it won’t be nonstop production for Gibbs from Week 1 to Week 18. He will have his down moments.

But when Jahmyr Gibbs is full-go for the Lions, it will be special and he’s going to shut up a lot of the doubters who questioned the NFL Draft night decision by the Detroit Lions.

Best Underdog Fantasy RB Pick Em Entries: Jahmyr Gibbs 600.5 Rushing Yards (HIGHER)

Aaron Jones 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns: Higher or Lower?

While Mr. Rodgers has taken a jet out of Green Bay to New York, there is still one Aaron to keep your eye on at Lambeau Field: Aaron Jones.

The Packers running back becomes even more important in an offense that is now led by an untested QB, Jordan Love. One would assume Jones will be the safety valve, the check-down option for Love to limit the young quarterback’s mistakes.

Aaron Jones has seen his targets, receptions, and receiving yards increase in three straight seasons – that will continue. Jones may even continue to be a 1,000+ yard rusher, which he’s done in three of the past four seasons. But rushing touchdowns? That’s where the optimism about Aaron Jones fades away.

In 2022, Jones had just two rushing touchdowns…TWO! That’s it! No wonder the Packers offense wasn’t as good as expected. Plus, AJ Dillon’s seven rushing touchdowns definitely vultured a few TDs from Jones.

While Jordan Love will need Aaron Jones between the 20s and in the passing game, rushing touchdowns isn’t where Aaron Jones has or will shine this season.

If you draft Aaron Jones in fantasy – you’ll be happy. If you are a Packers fan, Aaron Jones will be a contributor this season. But for those asking for higher or lower on his rushing touchdown projections, we are going to follow the data from last season and believe Jones will fail to reach such lofty expectations.

Best Underdog Fantasy RB Pick Em Entries: Aaron Jones 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns (LOWER)