After going 3-0 on our MLB best bets yesterday on July 31st, we turn the calendar from to August and countdown the final hours until the MLB trade deadline.
Front offices will either push their chips into the pot or fold, and that makes trade deadline day an odd day to be betting. Abnormal days are always a concern in baseball because it is the ultimate creator-of-habit sport. And the psychological impact of trades definitely trickles down to the pitcher’s mound and batter’s box on Tuesday.
Nevertheless, we have the best MLB bets today for August 1st to make based on the most important trends, stats, and matchups of the day.
Baltimore Orioles (-105) at Toronto Blue Jays (-115) – 7:07 PM EST
The trade deadline will pass today and the Baltimore Orioles will not only be in first place in the AL East, but will have the second-best record in baseball. You gotta love it!
And this Orioles team isn’t a cute story – these hitters are some of the best in baseball right now. Oh, and they are deep – in a couple of ways. They have five players with double-digit total home runs and three more with nine home runs, while having just one hitter with over 100 strikeouts.
While Baltimore’s bats are good, the O’s starting pitcher has been great as well. Kyle Bradish had a 2.25 ERA in July and limited hitters to a .218 OBA. Plus, in his one start this year against Toronto, he allowed just 1 earned run and four hits over seven innings.
If Bradish is an example of a pitcher coming on strong, Blue Jays pitcher Hyun Jin Ryu is an example of a player holding on.
Ryu is making his first start since June 1, 2022. Normally, we would avoid a pitcher with limited recent history, but that’s not necessary with the Orioles given the insulting distinction of road underdog on Tuesday.
Have the kids from Baltimore not earned the sportsbooks’ respect? Bradish plus this sizzling-hot Orioles offense against Ryu in his MLB return is begging for a bet on the birds from south of the border.
MLB Best Bet: Orioles +1.5 (-178)
New York Mets (-150) at Kansas City Royals (+130) – 8:10 PM EST
The Mets are the perfect example of a team that one would expect to be feeling the gut punch of trade deadline day. Whoever remains on their roster by the 8:10 first pitch in Kansas City will be well aware of the fact that the offseason has basically started for the boys from Queens.
That kind of deflating reality is something Kansas City has lived with for weeks (and really months). The Royals are going to have a much more normal day than the Mets. That may very well contribute to helping KC secure a cashing ticket for us.
When looking at the best MLB bets today for August 1st, evaluating each team’s starting pitcher is always crucial. The matchup on the mound is a couple of pitchers who are on the “used to be good list” – Zack Greinke now has an ERA of 5.49 and Jose Quintana is making just his third start of the season.
While Quintana pitched okay in his first two starts, the Mets lost them both (though it was more a result of their offense’s lack of production.) Speaking of bad Mets offense, Zack Greinke has good numbers against them.
In 39 at-bats against Greinke, the hitters on the Mets roster have a combined .205 batting average with no home runs, one RBI, only one walk, and 13 strikeouts. The biggest contributor to those poor stats is Tommy Pham who is 3-for-20 against Greinke with 8 strikeouts —player prop bet alert: if Tommy Pham starts for the Mets, bet OVER 0.5 strikeouts!
As for the game bet we like, the Royals are underdogs at home and have us believing they can cover on the run line with Greinke containing the Mets and providing New York media with perfect material to pair with the trade deadline sell-off.
MLB Best Bet: Royals +2.5 (-190) and Royals +1.5 (-120)
Arizona Diamondbacks (-115) at San Francisco Giants (-105) – 9:45 PM EST
When looking at the best MLB bets today for August 1st, the Giants are two games ahead of the Diamondbacks in the NL West standings – with both teams chasing the Dodgers – making this series that much more critical. Tuesday’s game features a matchup of aces and 2023 All-Stars: Zac Gallen vs Alex Cobb.
Gallen struggled in July, allowing 16 earned runs and 7 home runs – more than any other month this season. A bright spot is his one start against the Giants earlier this season was a 7.2-inning win that is among Gallen’s best outings of the year.
While these notes should always be taken with a warning, one stat that pops out is Gallen’s success in night games. An 8-2 record with a 2.91 ERA and only 2 home runs allowed compared to a 3-3 record, 3.80 ERA, and 12 home runs allowed in day games. Tuesday’s start is a night game.
Turning to the Giants, since the start of May, San Francisco has a 12-2 record when Alex Cobb pitches. His ERA in July was 2.42 and he limited home runs to just 2 during the month. And, to strike the same note twice – Alex Cobb has a 5-0 record and 1.66 ERA in night games, 1-3 with a 5.05 ERA during the day.
Feels like a pitcher’s duel at Oracle Park. Weather should accommodate that trend. Over/under for this game is set at 7.5. That’s worth taking – but UNDER 8.5 is a very safe play.
MLB Best Bet: Diamondbacks-Giants UNDER 8.5 (-175)