As we look to make our best MLB bets for September 3rd, we are riding high. After all, what’s better than going 3-for-3 on our MLB best bets on Saturday, September 2nd?
Doing it again on Sunday – and making it a “perfect pick weekend”…think we can pull it off?
Well, here we go – giving you our favorite plays for Sunday, and hopefully putting cashingting tickets in your hand!
Let’s go…
Chicago Cubs (-150) at Cincinnati Reds (+130) – 12:10 PM EST
As of Sunday morning, the Cincinnati Reds are just outside of the NL Wild Card picture. With one more loss than the Diamondbacks and Giants, the Reds are down the tiebreaker and shockingly still behind the Cubs who surged past them over the past both.
However, the Reds have won the last two games of this series against Chicago and look to make it 3-straight against a Cubs pitcher than Cincy should handle.
Chicago right-hander Jameson Taillon has a 6.06 ERA over the last 30 days. He has a 5.34 ERA on the road. And, if those two stats scare you, just wait – Taillon’s ERA in day games (like Sunday’s game will be) is 7.80! Disgustingly bad.
Oh, and Jameson Taillon has a 1-6 record in those day games with opponents hitting .320. Clearly the sun doesn’t shine favorably on the Cubs starter.
Reds starter Carson Spiers is set for a spot start on Sunday in his Reds debut. What should we expect from the 25-year old righty? Hard to say given the lack of data, but our expectation is the Reds supply him with enough runs to keep it a close game no matter what the young Reds starter does.
Cincy is 30-15 on the run line as a home underdog this season, the 2nd most covers in all over baseball in that situation and 1st in the National League. The Cubs are 13-17 on the run line as an away favorite.
Whether believing in the Reds or fading Jameson Taillon in a day game, we come out with the same result – give us Cincinnati to cover on the run line.
Best MLB Bets for September 3rd: Reds +1.5 (-120)
Miami Marlins (-190) at Washington Nationals (+160) – 1:35 PM EST
In a combined 90 at-bats against Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara, the Washington Nationals have managed just 16 hits for a .178 batting average. The Nats hitters have just two home runs, three doubles, seven RBIs, and amazingly have walked only twice while striking out 21 times.
Now last year’s NL Cy Young has not been himself for much of the season, but in July and August, we’ve seen more of the Sandy Alcantara that we’ve come to expect. That wasn’t the case when Alcantara faced the Nats on June 17th and allowed 5 earned runs over 5.1 innings, but that was Sandy in the midst of his struggles. We’re believing he’s turned a corner – or at least a better pitcher than he was in that outing.
Washington is 15-27 against the NL East this season and sends Josiah Gray to the rubber with a 0-3 record and 8.84 ERA in August. In fact, Gray allowed almost as many walks (17) as he had strikeouts (18) in the month of August – yikes! That’s dreadful!
But, it gets worse…the Marlins roster has a combined 109 at-bats against the Nationals righty and have 34 hits against him, good for a .312 batting average. Plus, the Marlins have five homers against him and 16 RBIs in that 109 at-bat sample size.
Luis Arraez, Josh Bell, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Bryan De La Cruz, Nick Fortes, Yuli Gurriel, Jesus Sanchez, and Joey Wendle all have a batting average above .300 against Gray, and that excludes Jorge Soler who has a .267 average but a home run as well against Gray.
So, believing in Alcantara and fading Gray – where does that leave us? Taking the Marlins on the moneyline!
Best MLB Bets for September 3rd: Marlins ML (-190)
Baltimore Orioles (+120) at Arizona Diamondbacks (-140) – 4:10 PM EST
Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen is putting together an NL Cy Young case for 2023. 14-6 on the year, with a 3.32 ERA over 173.1 innings pitched, and opponents are hitting just .234 against him.
Since a rough March, Gallen has been the stabilizing presence in the D’backs rotation that has lifted them into NL Wild Card contention.
On top of that, Gallen is coming off a strong month of August. Yes, his last start against the Dodgers was arguably his worst of the year – but a road loss to a scorching hot LA lineup can be forgiven, especially when it’s the only blemish in a month in which Gallen went 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA (his second best ERA of any month this season).
But, the season-long stats and even the stats in August aren’t what have us excited about Arizona on Sunday. That would be Zac Gallen’s stats at home this season.
When pitching in Arizona, Gallen is 11-1 with a 1.79 ERA over 85.1 innings pitched, and he’s allowed only a .211 OBA. That is insanely good. And guess where the Diamondbacks battle the Orioles on Sunday? You guessed it – Arizona!
Who do the Orioles counter with? Trade deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty, who has a 1-2 record and 6.41 ERA since joining the Orioles. He hasn’t exactly been the stud pitcher Baltimore thought it was getting – and we expect that to continue on Sunday.
Flaherty has faced the Diamondbacks lineup twice this season and in those two starts, Flaherty went 0-1, pitched 11 innings, allowed seven earned runs, and a .293 batting average to Arizona’s hitters.
If there was a knockout punch on top of Gallen being at home, those two previous outings do it. Are we saying the Diamondbacks cover today? They might, but it’s not the best bet for this one. No, this is almost too obvious for anyone to miss. With Zac Gallen starting at home (remember he’s 11-1 in Arizona), how can we not take Diamondbacks on the moneyline!
Best MLB Bets for September 3rd: Diamondbacks ML (-140)