Our best MLB bets for August 9th are here and sports bettors should be excited as across our MLB Best Bets article and MLB Trend Picks video, we went 6-0 on Tuesday.
How? We focused on pitching matchups, hitters on hot streaks, and how the weather would impact the scoring for each game.
Can we do it again on Wednesday? Let’s find out…
Minnesota Twins (-155) at Detroit Tigers (+135) – 6:40 PM EST
In division games, the OVER is 15-17 for the Tigers and the OVER for the Twins is 17-19-2. When these teams meet, the UNDER is usually the better play.
Wednesday, Minnesota starts Bailey Ober. He’s allowed more than three earned runs only once since the start of June. And while his ERA is slightly higher on the road than at home, he has only allowed four home runs on the road – another positive note for taking the UNDER.
Tigers starter Alex Faedo’s numbers won’t have you thinking fewer runs, especially with an ERA that was 6.52 in the month of July. But at least his last start was a 6-inning, no-run gem.
No, it’s Ober, the betting trends, and the weather that gets us excited about the UNDER.
Speaking of the weather, the wind should be blowing in at Comerica Park and cutting down home runs to help limit overall offense. We’ll say it one more time for good luck – let’s go UNDER!
MLB Best Bet: Twins-Tigers UNDER 9.5 (-155)
Washington Nationals (+155) at Philadelphia Phillies (-185) – 6:40 PM EST
Though it’s been more than a week since the trade deadline, some pitchers are just now making their home debuts – that includes Phillies right-hander Michael Lorenzen.
In Lorenzen’s first start for the Phils, he delivered a brilliant performance: W, 8 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 1 BB, 5 K. Those numbers provided immediate validation for the Philadelphia front office, but it’s nothing new for Lorenzen.
Over the last 30 days, Lorenzen has made four starts. He’s gone 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA, only one home run allowed, and opposing hitters are hitting a pathetic .178. He may not get headlines, but Lorenzen has been outstanding, whether with Detroit or Philly.
That’s who is starting for the home team. The away team doesn’t have the same positive stats to be optimistic about on Wednesday.
MacKenzie Gore isn’t a bad pitcher – in fact, he’s put up solid numbers including a 4.34 ERA this season. However, against the Phillies, Gore has been BRUTAL!
How brutal? In two previous starts against the Phillies this season, Gore is 0-2 with a 10.38 ERA (that’s 10 runs in 8.2 IP) and the Phillies are hitting .385 against him.
So pitching favors Philadelphia…hitting favors Philadelphia…let’s not overcomplicate things. We’re going with Philly!
MLB Best Bet: Phillies ML (-185)
Houston Astros (+105) at Baltimore Orioles (-125) – 7:05 PM EST
In what could be a playoff series preview, the Astros and Orioles have provided some entertaining baseball this week and that will continue on Wednesday.
For the Orioles, matchups like this one against Houston are why you got Jack Flaherty at the trade deadline. He too will be making his home debut.
And, like Michael Lorenzen, Jack Flaherty was strong in his first start with his new team. He earned a win against the Blue Jays in a 6-inning performance in which he allowed just one earned run, four hits, no home runs, and K’d eight batters.
While the O’s have to feel good about their new right-handed starter, the Astros have lots of questions about their former stud, Cristian Javier.
In June, Javier made five starts and had a 5.79 ERA only to follow it up with a 6.86 ERA in four starts in July. And it’s not just that Javier is giving up runs, he’s also not going deep into games.
If the run of bad starts wasn’t enough, Javier has a 5.29 ERA on the road with 13 home runs allowed – and yes, that’s a lot of home runs to be giving up!
If the Astros are going to stay in this game, they’ll need a lot of offense. Fortunately, the weather will be perfect for extra-base hits and runs.
Player prop bet note – left-handed hitters have a .310 batting average and seven home runs against Jack Flaherty, so Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez might be very solid plays.
MLB Best Bet: Astros-Orioles OVER 8.5 (-140) / Astros-Orioles OVER 7.5 (-190)
