Over the last few days, we’ve been good, but we could always be better. So, we are going chalky today. What does that mean? It means we’re keeping it simple, and we are taking favorites to win.
That doesn’t mean there isn’t money to be made or opportunity to be seized. It just means this Monday might be ripe for a parlay. Not too big … but think 3 or 4 legs.
We will hand out three picks we like to get you started and inspire a play — even if they feature some less-than-sexy odds.
Washington Nationals at Toronto Blue Jays
Did you know the Toronto Blue Jays have the best winning percentage in interleague play this season? Good fact to know with the Washington Nationals traveling north of the border to face Canada’s favorite team.
Washington hasn’t been awful against the American League with a 20-18 record, but the Nats are also one of the worst teams when playing on no rest.
Additionally, the starting pitching matchup heavily favors Toronto. Kevin Gausman has a 3.45 ERA and .259 OBA over the last 30 days while Nationals starter Josiah Gray has a 7.79 ERA and .239 OBA over that span of time.
Some may try and talk you into a run line play in favor of the Blue Jays. We would disagree, but that’s not the bet that’s getting our money. Like we said at the beginning – we are talking favorites to win on this Monday.
MLB Best Bet: Blue Jays ML
San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals
Free agent to-be Blake Snell is playing himself into a very big contract. Though he has just a 10-9 record, Snell has a 2.73 ERA, opponents are hitting less than .200 against him on the year, and he’s allowed just 100 hits over 142 innings pitched.
Snell has delivered for the Padres – it’s San Diego that’s let him down in 2023. Hopefully Monday isn’t a microcosm of the season.
The Padres will be facing Cardinals Hall of Famer to-be Adam Wainwright. This should be Wainwright’s last season, meaning every start in front of the St. Louis fans will be special. But stats tell the story, and for Wainwright, it is an ugly tale.
3-9 record on the year, 8.61 ERA, .360 OBA – and in August it’s even worse (which is hard to believe). 0-4, 14.73 ERA, .403 OBA with 4 home runs allowed in August. Wainwright is a legend, but these are numbers that should have anyone and everyone fading the Cards starting pitcher.
Cardinals are 7-10 as home underdogs, 42-53 in non-division games, and 50-63 on no rest. Wainwright’s statline and the season-long trends have us once again convinced the heavy favorite is worth the extra squeeze.
MLB Best Bet: Padres ML
Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies
The Atlanta Braves have put together one of the greatest offensive seasons in baseball history and continue to mash baseballs no matter where they play. And tonight, the Braves play at Coors Field.
Our weather prediction – it will rain baseballs on fans in the bleachers!
Yes – we are all in on the Braves. Player prop bets on Ronald Acuna Jr., Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, and Austin Riley! This feels like an everything-must-go sale, but for runs! There will be offense and the Braves will be behind much of it.
That’s not to say the Rockies will fail to score. Expect both teams to get past five runs each, but the Braves won’t stop at five.
At home, Colorado’s starting pitcher, Austin Gomber, has a 7.06 ERA! YIKES! Opponents are hitting .314 against him at Coors Field. Why would anyone doubt the Braves will score 5, 6, 7 or more runs.
We promise chalky plays and we have delivered on that promise. We couldn’t be more confident that the Braves will deliver offense and a “W” on Monday.
MLB Best Bet: Braves ML