On Tuesday, our picks went 3-0.
What can we say – it was a good day. But, we are like Joe DiMaggio – a good day isn’t enough…we want a streak of hits!
So, back into the research we go – diving into the matchups, stats, and trends to identify the best plays for you to bet on.
Which picks did we uncover for today’s games? Here you go, our best MLB bets for Wednesday!
Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds
You want an ugly stat? Like REALLY ugly? When Noah Syndergaard has pitched on the road this year (no matter which team he’s playing for), he has an 0-2 record and 9.21 ERA with opponents hitting .331 against him. That’s over 28.1 innings pitched on the road this year!
Thor away from his home ballpark is not a superhero – he’s not even a good pitcher. When Syndergaard is on the road, he is AWFUL! And we aren’t dumping on Thor just yet…
The Guardians-Reds game has a first pitch of 6:40pm making it a night game. Do you want even more ugly stats? Syndergaard in night games is 0-4 with a 7.92 ERA and opponents are hitting .315 against him. So, he’s winless on the road, winless in night games, and he has an ERA that is so high you think it’s a mistake? Fade Syndergaard!
Reds starter Andrew Abbott has some bad numbers of his own recently. In August, Abbott has a 6.35 ERA with a .283 OBA.
Want more reason to believe in offense in this game besides Syndergaard’s numbers and Abbott’s numbers? The likelihood of home runs is up 37% and overall run are up 19% for this game.
Offense – that’s what we expect so that’s what we are betting on.
MLB Best Bet: Guardians-Reds OVER 8.5 (-175)
Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals
James Paxton was a risky bet by Chaim Bloom when the Red Sox GM signed the southpaw when he was still working his way back from injury.
Turns out Bloom was right, the bet paid off, as James Paxton has been arguably the best and most consistent pitcher in Boston’s starting rotation since Paxton joined it in May. That stability has been highlighted over the last 30 days, where Paxton is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA.
The Red Sox southpaw starter will be opposed by another southpaw starter for the Washington Nationals. MacKenzie Gore started the season strong, but each month this year has seen his ERA rise. In April, his ERA was 3.00 – in August, his ERA is 6.55.
Yes, Gore has been better at home than on the road – so maybe there are a few who like the Nationals to cover this game. We aren’t one of them, but that’s not the bet that has our attention.
We like Paxton and the Red Sox to earn another crucial win against a lesser opponent in the Nationals. Give us Boston for the win.
MLB Best Bet: Red Sox ML (-165)
Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
We have a nickname for Reid Detmers around here. The Angels southpaw starter averages so many walks per game and has gone over his 1.5 walks allowed per game total so many times that we now call him, Reid “Walk” Detmers.
So you already know we are fading the Angels on Wednesday!
LA’s starting pitcher is 1-7 in night games with a 5.74 ERA and 11 home runs allowed. On top of that, on the road, Detmers is 0-6 with a 6.70 ERA. Bad at night on the road…what’s Wednesday’s game? A night game on the road. Uh oh for the Angels!
The Texas Rangers have been one of the best teams at home this season. With a 43-20 record, the Rangers have the best winning percentage at home in MLB, the most wins at home this season, and they are 36-15 when a home favorite …also the second best winning percentage in MLB.
Detmers is an “L” waiting to happen at night and on the road – playing against the Texas Rangers just makes it an even safer bet.
MLB Best Bet: Rangers ML (-162)
By Butt Fumble Sports
Butt Fumble Sports is a sports content network focused on sports betting, fantasy sports, and ranting about sports. Our sports betting picks and fantasy plays are based on research, data, and analytics to try and provide sports fans with the most advantageous opportunities.