Butt Fumble Sports is back again with the best MLB bets today for July 31st. While the 10-game schedule for Monday at first appears like a “lighter” day of baseball, the truth is these 10 games offer a perfect blend of division rivalries, trade deadline buyers and sellers, and — most importantly — good betting opportunities.
Milwaukee Brewers (-200) at Washington Nationals (+170)
Corbin Burnes has been fantastic in the month of July, allowing just six earned runs over 5 starts – and possibly even more impressive – allowing just one home run over those 33 innings pitched. His 1.64 ERA is the fourth lowest in MLB over the past 30 days.
On the other side, Jake Irvin has a 5.40 ERA in July while allowing 8 home runs. In fact, Jake Irvin has allowed a home run in six consecutive games (maybe stash that away for a home run bet later).
But the Brewers on the moneyline isn’t an attractive play in this game. The betting opportunity is actually on the Nationals covering on the run line. However, the Nationals +1.5 (+100) might be a little tight given Corbin Burnes’ decent dominance and Irvin’s struggles. So, a tip for you bettors looking to cash a ticket at a more advantageous line: take an alternative line of Nats +2.5 (-160).
The Nationals have covered +2 runs in 7 of their last 10 games, while the Brewers have only covered -2 runs in 2 of their last 10 games. Plus, Milwaukee is 5-10 on the run line as an away favorite.
MLB Best Bet: Nationals +2.5 (-160)
Baltimore Orioles (+125) at Toronto Blue Jays (-145)
The Blue Jays are 5.5 games behind the first-place Baltimore Orioles in the AL East as the two teams enter a pivotal series with the trade deadline looming for two buyers looking to stock up for the slugfest down the homestretch of the season. This season should be must-watch TV for baseball fans, especially game one of the series.
The Orioles put their current ace on the mound, Kyle Gibson, though that “ace” status could change if the Orioles can somehow trade for a big name (…Justin Verlander, are you listening…). Gibson’s stats don’t wow anybody – a 4.75 ERA in July, a 4.14 ERA on the road, and left-handed hitters have a .298 batting average against him.
When looking at the best MLB bets today for July 31st, the only positive statistic is Gibson’s one appearance earlier this season against the Blue Jays which included a win, 7 innings pitched, 1 earned run, no home run, two walks, five strikeouts, and five hits allowed.
Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt’s stats against the Orioles tell the complete opposite story: loss, 8 earned runs allowed, 3 home runs allowed, one walk, five K’s, and 11 hits allowed. That said, Bassitt has a 6-1 record and 2.24 ERA at home this season. So, how do you play this game?
Trust that the Orioles’ offense will do enough damage against Bassitt and the Blue Jays revamped bullpen to keep the game close – whether the O’s win or lose shouldn’t be your concern – we are all about the run line. Baltimore is 27-9 on the run as an away underdog, the third-best record in MLB.
MLB Best Bet: Orioles +1.5 (-160)
Cincinnati Reds (+105) at Chicago Cubs (-125)
Another one of the best MLB bets today for July 31st comes from the Reds vs Cubs game. While the NL Central first-place Reds are getting all the attention, the Chicago Cubs are only 4 games behind them in the standings and have an 8-2 record over their last 10 games, the best in the National League.
With their recent success, the Cubs have shifted from sellers to …maybe not buyers, but at least “holders” – keeping Cody Bellinger and Monday’s starter Marcus Stroman. However, Stroman might have been worth ditching. After sub-3.00 ERAs in March, April, May, and June, Stroman’s ERA in July is 7.99! And, over the season, opponents’ batting averages have steadily climbed from .150 to .183 to .239 and now to .283 in July.
Andrew Abbott of the Reds is suffering from the same midsummer struggles that Stroman has of late. The Reds southpaw has a 2-2 record with a 2.53 ERA in July, while keeping opponents to a .209 batting average.
Abbott has never faced the Cubs. Stroman has held the current roster of Cincinnati hitters to a .188 batting average with no home runs, 3 RBIs, and just 6 hits in 32 lifetime at-bats. Weather should play in favor of a low-scoring game at Wrigley. Feels like under 8.5 will hit, and under 9.5 is stealing. But that’s not our favorite play.
The Reds are 33-12 on the run line as an away underdog, 2nd most wins in MLB, and Cincinnati is 20-12 in division games, 4th best record in MLB.
MLB Best Bet: Reds +1.5 (-155)
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